Golf and Randomness
John Irving wrote in the last chapter of "Trying to Save Piggy Sneed" that he wished he had written Charles Dickens' "Great Expectations". Although I can feel for the sentiment, Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" (which I have read twice) is the kind of books that I wish more to be able to write. Quoting the author's words in the book - "probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause or motive" - outcomes in life are probably more subject to luck than some people would like to believe in. With "mathematics as a tool to meditate, not compute", and no shortage of mythological lessons, the author cleverly elucidates on the paradox of randomness - that all too often business and market performance, as are so many other results in life - is more down to chance than skill.
I guess Mr Taleb has no disagreement to the Chinese wisdom on fate, that it is subject to a person's destiny and luck more than anything else - certainly no disagreement on the part of luck if not destiny.
But if there is one particular area in life outside the corporate, economic and financial environments which I am fully convicted in the critical role of luck in determining the outcome, it is golf. No matter how skillful in the peculiar sport a person believes he is, or truly is, paradoxically, the direct result of any shot, chip or putt is more subject to the invisible hands of golf god than one may like to admit - a sudden gust of wind, the good or bad break on landing, the clean or poor lie, the speed of the green, or even a sudden muscle spasm during the swing. As with business performance, people tend only to blame hard luck for the bad shots but attribute the good ones to skills. But Tiger Woods seems to know better. Even with his superlative level of golf skills, I recall he openly ascribed to just good luck when asked about his superb season of unprecedented performance around the year 2000 in an interview. Of course this was a humble utterance. But the wisdom is real.
Golf is also where stoicism will come in handy for a player to face adversity. Quoting some thought-provoking words of Mr Taleb again: "No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at determining the odds, randomness will have the last word. We are left only with dignity as a solution." Also, "the dignified attitude will make both defeat and victory both feel heroic". So, don't take it out on the caddie for a bad shot. Other than the technical skills, indeed I still have much to improve on.
I guess Mr Taleb has no disagreement to the Chinese wisdom on fate, that it is subject to a person's destiny and luck more than anything else - certainly no disagreement on the part of luck if not destiny.
But if there is one particular area in life outside the corporate, economic and financial environments which I am fully convicted in the critical role of luck in determining the outcome, it is golf. No matter how skillful in the peculiar sport a person believes he is, or truly is, paradoxically, the direct result of any shot, chip or putt is more subject to the invisible hands of golf god than one may like to admit - a sudden gust of wind, the good or bad break on landing, the clean or poor lie, the speed of the green, or even a sudden muscle spasm during the swing. As with business performance, people tend only to blame hard luck for the bad shots but attribute the good ones to skills. But Tiger Woods seems to know better. Even with his superlative level of golf skills, I recall he openly ascribed to just good luck when asked about his superb season of unprecedented performance around the year 2000 in an interview. Of course this was a humble utterance. But the wisdom is real.
Golf is also where stoicism will come in handy for a player to face adversity. Quoting some thought-provoking words of Mr Taleb again: "No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at determining the odds, randomness will have the last word. We are left only with dignity as a solution." Also, "the dignified attitude will make both defeat and victory both feel heroic". So, don't take it out on the caddie for a bad shot. Other than the technical skills, indeed I still have much to improve on.
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